Cribbage strategy
Most cribbage games are won at the throw. Keep the four cards that score best on average, give your own crib cards that work together (fives above all), and give the other player's crib cards that don't, like a king with a 10. Then peg so the count never hands them an easy fifteen or 31.
The throw: it depends who deals
The same six cards can call for different throws. Say you're dealt the ace, 4, 6, 7, 9 and king. Here's what our hand calculator says:
- If you deal, throw the 6 and 9. They're a fifteen sitting in your own crib, worth about 5.6 points there, and the hand you keep still averages 4.2.
- If you don't, throw the 7 and king. That pair adds only about 3.6 to the other player's crib, and you keep the hand worth the most (4.65 on average).
Strong hands don't change with the deal. With 5, 5, jack, 10, 2 and 9, keep the fives and the face cards whether you deal or not and throw the 2 and 9. The kept four average 12.6 points and never score below 10. Even as dealer, putting the pair of 5s in your crib instead costs you about 2.4 points on average.
Cards that make a crib, and cards that kill one
We counted every possible crib for every pair of cards you could throw, taking the other two crib cards and the starter at random. Real throws aren't random (the other player is aiming at your crib when you deal and away from theirs), so take these as a ranking more than exact points.
| Best to give your own crib | Crib points, about | Worst to give theirs (best for you) | Crib points, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 and 5 | 9.0 | 10 and king | 3.4 |
| 5 and jack | 7.3 | 9 and king | 3.5 |
| 5 and 6 | 7.1 | 9 and queen | 3.5 |
| 5 and 10 | 7.0 | 8 and king | 3.5 |
| 4 and 5 | 7.0 | 7 and king | 3.6 |
| 2 and 3 | 6.8 | 6 and king | 3.6 |
| 7 and 8 | 6.8 | ace and king | 3.7 |
Two patterns stand out. Fives are the best crib cards there are, because 16 of the 52 cards count as 10. And kings are the safest cards to give away: nothing ranks above a king, so it can only ever join a run from one side. A jack is a touch better than a queen or king in your own crib, partly because of his nobs.
Pegging: score, but don't feed them
- Lead a card below 5. No single card can make fifteen from a 4 or less. Leading a 5 invites a 10-card, and there are 16 of them.
- Keep the count off 5 and 21. A count of 5 gives them fifteen with any 10-card, and 21 gives them 31 the same way.
- Pair with care. Pairing their card scores 2, but if they hold the third one it's 6 for them. Late in a count, or when you hold a third yourself, pairing is safer.
- Don't open runs. Playing a 6 on their 7 leaves 5 or 8 to make a run of three. Cards two or more apart are safer.
- Hold low cards for the end of a count. An ace or 2 lets you squeeze in under 31 and take the go point, or make 31 for 2.
The dealer pegs more, partly because the pone has to lead. In our test games the dealer pegged 3.2 points a hand and the pone 2.0. Our strong computer player follows the rules above: for every card it could play, it weighs the points it scores now against what you could score back with the cards it hasn't seen.
The 26-point round, and playing to the board
Cribbage writers have long said a round of two hands (one deal each) is worth about 26 points: about 16 to the dealer and 10 to the pone. Our games came out the same. Per hand, the dealer averaged 15.9 (pegging, hand and crib) and the pone 10.1, which adds to 26.0.
That gives you a yardstick. If you're comfortably ahead of that pace, play defense: throw safe cards to their crib, keep steady hands, and peg cautiously. If you're behind, take chances. Keep hands with a higher ceiling, and peg to set up big plays. The deal also matters at the end: the pone counts first, so a pone who needs only a few points to win often gets there before the dealer can count.
Our numbers
| What we measured | Result |
|---|---|
| Games won by the player who dealt first | 56.0% |
| Hands in an average game | 9.1 |
| Games ending in a skunk (loser below 91) | 12.8% |
| Pone's kept hand, average | 8.1 points |
| Dealer's kept hand, average | 8.0 points |
| Crib, average | 4.7 points |
| Strong computer's wins against the easy one | 1,331 of 2,000 games |
Method: 10,000 full games to 121 between two copies of our strong computer player, each with its own shuffled deck and a cut for first deal, October 2026. Computer players aren't people, so treat these as one well-defined benchmark. The first-dealer edge, for example, could be a little different between expert humans.
Practice with hints
The fastest way to get better is to play and check. In our cribbage game, the Hint button shows the throw the strong computer would make, with the average it expects, and during the play it marks the card it would lead or follow with. You get 6 hints per game, so save them for the throws you're unsure about. Every hand is counted out line by line, so you see the fifteens you missed.
Sources
- Our simulations and exact counts, October 2026, using the same code as our game.
- Cribbage Corner, "Advanced cribbage strategy" (the 16-point dealer, 10-point pone rule of thumb, and positional play).
- American Cribbage Congress, "Rules of Cribbage" (2020 edition), cribbage.org.
Keep playing
- Play cribbageAgainst the computer or a friend, counted for you.
- How to playThe deal, the crib, the play and the show, step by step.
- Scoring chartEvery way to score, with the tricky hands worked out.
- Hand calculatorCount any hand or crib, and see which two cards to throw.
- Spite and MaliceAnother two-player card race, against the computer or a friend.